Assessing a Climb Back For Nigeria to Apex from Abyss in Africa – by Collins Nweke
A little over a decade ago, Nigeria stood tall as the economic crown jewel of Africa. In 2014, a rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) catapulted the country to the top of the continental economic league. It surpassed South Africa with a GDP of over $510 billion. It was a moment of optimism.
Optimism is both symbolic and a reality. Nigeria could not be Africa’s most populous nation without also being it’s wealthiest. However, today, in a dramatic reversal of fortunes, Nigeria is projected to be not the second or third-largest economy in Africa, but in an abysmally low position, ranking fourth by 2025. It lines up behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria.
This precipitous decline is not merely a statistical reshuffle. It is a sobering indicator of missed opportunities, economic mismanagement, and an over-dependence on a volatile mono-product economy. Yet, it is both a challenge and a rallying cry, to rethink Nigeria’s economic destiny. Because if any African nation has the latent strength to reclaim the top spot, it is Nigeria. But it must now earn the spot.
The Anatomy of a Decline
How did Nigeria get here? Several intersecting factors have contributed to its decline from an economic pole position. Of these factors, four have acted as daggers on the navel.
First is currency devaluation and macroeconomic instability. The consistent depreciation of the Naira has been a major driver of Nigeria’s shrinking GDP when measured in dollar terms. Policies aimed at “managing” the exchange rate too often delay necessary reforms, ultimately weakening investor confidence and driving capital flight.
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