As Zambians prepare to elect their president on August 13, the campaign transcends Hakainde Hichilema versus a fragmented opposition. It is a referendum on if the economic recovery is impacting homes/families; whether the country can preserve its reputation for peaceful elections; and if copper wealth can finally translate into comprehensive prosperity.
In Lusaka, Zambia’s political rallies and speeches, are about development. On the streets, in markets, at bus stations and across neighbourhoods, the conversation is often more basic – how much does a family need, to survive a week? This question may prove more important than the government’s projected-campaigned economic statistics, when nearly 8.8 million registered voters go to the polls on August 13/2026.
The Electoral Commission of Zambia says women account for 53.1% of registered voters, while young people make up 46.3%. Together, those figures describe an electorate with enormous political weight; and an election in which everyday economics, employment clamour and the future of young people, could matter as much as party loyalty. As Zambia heads to the polls on 13th day of August, the biggest question may not simply be who wins the presidency, but a show to connote if voters believe their lives have improved enough, to give the existing government another mandate.
The August 13th election, is a referendum on a difficult path of bargain, in respect to millions of Zambians. A bargain that beckons on questions like – should the country stay the course with President Hakainde Hichilema’s economic reforms, or should voters give the opposition a chance to pursue a different path? The election is also about to test one of Africa’s more closely-observed democracy; in the sense that it will be watching out to see, if Zambia can once again conduct a competitive national poll, without allowing political differences to descend into violence.
In a clear attraction, the central focal-political flag-bearer of the upcoming election is the incumbent – Hakainde Hichilema, leader of the United Party for National Development (UPND); who is seeking a second term after winning the presidency in 2021, after 6 unsuccessful attempts. His 2021 ascension into the State House, welcomed him with an inherited economy that was weighed down by debt and a sovereign default. His government has since then overseen a major restructuring of Zambia’s debt, and pursued international financial support, while investors responded to the reforms/renewed opportunities, in mining and other sectors.
But the language of economic recovery, can sound very different from the experience of a family trying to buy food on a daily basis. With reference to families in crowded townships, a young person searching for work, farmers worrying about markets or a small trader coping with electricity and transport costs, the real measure of recovery is knowing that there is money in their pocket at the end of the week, to fend for the homefront. This view is far from GDP growth or foreign reserves projections. And this is the central political challenge that has been facing Hichilema’s current government.
The World Bank estimated that 71.7% of Zambians lived below the $3 per-day poverty line in 2022, which illustrates how profound poverty-line is embedded in the society, despite periods of economic growth. On this note, most rural communities carry a particularly heavy burden. A created gap between macro/microeconomic progress and household reality.
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