Africa’s need for refined products is set to surge, driven by demographic and economic forces. According to our report, Africa’s refined product demand is projected to climb from approximately 4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2024 to over 6 million bbl/d by 2050.
While many advanced economies are moving to reduce their dependence on oil and gas, Africa is next in line to benefit from its own — and has every right to do so, just as the developed nations of the world already have. This situation highlights both the opportunities for energy security and the challenges that lie ahead regarding infrastructure development.
While many other regions around the world are expected to follow the same path toward green alternatives as Europe and North America in the coming years, Africa’s oil demand shows no sign of waning anytime soon. However, Africa’s trajectory is markedly different: Per capita consumption remains the lowest globally, particularly in sub-Saharan African nations, leaving substantial room for expansion as populations and GDPs rise.
Forecasts suggest that the continent’s population could swell by more than 930 million people, reaching nearly 2.4 billion by 2050. This would account for 25% of the world’s population and 63% of global population growth between now and then.
Economic projections are equally substantial, with Africa’s 2050 GDP expected to nearly triple from what it is now to around USD7.8 trillion after growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8-3.9% in the coming decades. Smaller, less developed markets will lead this charge, amplifying demand for energy-intensive activities.
Currently, despite representing 18% of the global population, Africa consumes less than 5% of the world’s oil products and contributes just 3% to global GDP.
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