From Addis Ababa, Ethiopian federal forces and allied regional fighters have recaptured Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, after a rapid military counteroffensive that pushed Tigrayan forces out of the city and back toward the surrounding mountains.
The capture of Mekelle marks a significant military and political victory for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, but it also raises fears that Ethiopia’s northern conflict could be entering another prolonged and destabilising phase rather than moving toward a lasting settlement.
The fighting erupted after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and allied armed groups launched an offensive on September 23, seizing Mekelle and the strategically important Alula Aba Nega Airport. The offensive effectively shattered the fragile peace established by the 2022 Pretoria agreement, which had ended the previous devastating war in Tigray.
The federal government responded by deploying the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), supported by the pro-government Tigray Peace Forces (TPF). After days of fighting and artillery exchanges, government forces regained control of the airport before advancing into the capital. By the weekend, TPF fighters had entered central Mekelle, followed by Ethiopian military convoys. Government forces subsequently declared the city fully under their control.
As a powerful military display, the return of federal forces to Mekelle, is also a powerful demonstration of military strength, by the Ethiopian government. Images and footage emerging from the city, showed military convoys and heavily armed government forces moving through key areas of the regional capital. In Addis Ababa, the operation demonstrates that the federal military remains capable of projecting force into Tigray, despite the difficult terrain and the TPLF’s long experience in guerrilla warfare.
But the apparent victory may prove easier to achieve militarily, than politically. The Tigrayan fighters were largely repelled rather than destroyed in Mekelle. TPLF officials described their departure as a tactical withdrawal, intended to prevent devastating urban warfare and civilian casualties. Fighters are believed to have moved toward mountainous areas, where Tigrayan forces have historically benefited from difficult terrain.
That leaves open the possibility of a prolonged insurgency, with the conflict shifting from a battle for the capital, to a wider struggle over control of the region. This will generate the rise of political stakes for Abiy.
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